FY 2025 FMAP Projections

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released preliminary state personal income data for 2022 (release, interactive data). The federal government uses state per capita income to calculate each state’s federal reimbursement rate for Medicaid and other grant programs—the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP). The Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) uses an enhanced FMAP, which is higher than the Medicaid FMAP.

This BEA release allows projections of fiscal year (FY) 2025 FMAPs and enhanced FMAPs, which are based on per capita incomes for calendar years (CYs) 2020-2022. These FMAP projections fully incorporate the 2020 decennial census. The personal income data reflect significant federal COVID relief payments in 2020 and 2021, and the expiration or winding down of most federal relief programs in 2022.

FFIS’s projections show that FMAPs will increase in 19 states and decline in 20, ranging from a +1.13 percentage-point change in Hawaii to a -0.60 percentage-point change in South Dakota. However, these projections are based on preliminary data, and subsequent adjustments can result in substantial differences between projected and final FMAPs for some states.