FY 2024 FMAP Projections

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released preliminary state personal income data for 2021. The federal government uses state per capita income to calculate each state’s federal reimbursement rate—the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP)—for Medicaid and other grant programs. The Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) uses an enhanced FMAP, which is higher than the Medicaid matching rate.

This BEA release allows projections of fiscal year (FY) 2024 FMAPs and enhanced FMAPs, which are based on per capita incomes for calendar years (CYs) 2019-2021. These FMAPs are the first to incorporate the 2020 decennial census. The personal income data continue to reflect significant federal COVID relief payments.

FFIS’s projections show that FMAPs will increase in 21 states and decline in 18, ranging from a +2.80 percentage-point change in Vermont to a -2.64 percentage-point change in Arizona. However, these projections are based on preliminary data, and subsequent adjustments can result in big differences between the projected and final FMAPs for some states. FMAP projections during the COVID-19 pandemic have been more problematic due to delays in the release of 2020 decennial census data and subsequent revisions made to reflect relief payments.