Issue Brief 21-14
September 29, 2021

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released revised state personal income data for 2020. The federal government uses state per capita income to calculate each state’s federal reimbursement rate—the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP)—for Medicaid and other grant programs. The Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) uses an enhanced FMAP, which is higher than the Medicaid matching rate.

This BEA release allows calculation of the final fiscal year (FY) 2023 FMAPs and enhanced FMAPs, which are based on per capita incomes for calendar years (CYs) 2018-2020. Of note, BEA did not use the 2020 decennial census results in its per capita personal income calculations. Census has not released July 2020 population estimates based on the 2020 census or prior year re-estimates to produce a smooth curve between the 2010 and 2020 decennial counts (known as intercensal estimates).

This Issue Brief summarizes the BEA data and provides FFIS’s estimates of the final FY 2023 FMAPs and enhanced FMAPs. FFIS estimates that FMAPs will increase in 11 states and decline in 28, ranging from a +2.42 percentage-point change in Hawaii to a -2.04 percentage-point change in North Dakota.

While the FY 2023 FMAPs do not incorporate the results of the 2020 decennial census, the personal income data do reflect significant federal COVID relief payments. These payments, combined with data revisions to personal income, help to explain the unusually large number of states seeing FMAP decreases.