Issue Brief 19-11
March 27, 2019

Yesterday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released preliminary state personal income data for 2018. The federal government uses state per capita income to calculate each state’s federal reimbursement rate—the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP)—for Medicaid and certain other grant programs. The Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) uses an enhanced FMAP, which is higher than the Medicaid matching rate.

The BEA release facilitates projections of fiscal year (FY) 2021 FMAPs and enhanced FMAPs, which are based on per capita incomes for calendar years (CYs) 2016-2018. FFIS’s projections show that FMAPs will increase in 28 states and decline in 11. However, these projections are based on preliminary data, and subsequent adjustments can have a large impact on final FMAPs. All states will see significant reductions in their enhanced FMAPs because FY 2021 marks the full phase-out of the 23 percentage-point increase under the Affordable Care Act (ACA).