FY 2013 FMAP Projections - A Moving Target
On March 23, 2011, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released preliminary per capita personal income data for 2010 as well as preliminary personal income data for 2010 and revisions for prior years. The federal government uses state per capita personal income to calculate each state’s reimbursement rate for Medicaid and other grant programs such as Title IV-E adoption assistance and foster care. This matching rate, calculated annually, is known as the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP). The BEA release of the 2010 preliminary data permits projection of the fiscal year (FY) 2013 FMAPs, which are based on per capita personal incomes for calendar years 2008-2010.
This Issue Brief summarizes the BEA data and provides FFIS’s estimates of the preliminary FY 2013 FMAPs. These FMAPs reflect both personal income changes as well as the impact of the 2010 decennial census. However, data issues resulting from the slow processing of the 2010 census make these projections even less certain than in previous years. That said, FFIS projects that the FMAPs will increase in 13 states and decline in 23 states. Some states could see substantial changes in their FMAPs compared to FY 2012.