The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released preliminary state personal income data for 2025 (release, interactive data). The federal government uses state per capita personal income to calculate each state’s federal reimbursement rate for Medicaid and other grants using the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP). The Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) uses an enhanced FMAP, which is higher than the Medicaid FMAP.
This BEA release allows projections of fiscal year (FY) 2028 regular FMAPs and enhanced FMAPs, which are based on per capita incomes for calendar years (CYs) 2023-2025.
FFIS’s projections show that FMAPs will increase in 19 states and decline in 20, ranging from a +2.38 percentage-point change in North Dakota to a -1.81 percentage-point change in Hawaii. However, these projections are based on preliminary data; subsequent adjustments can result in substantial differences between projected and final FMAPs for some states.