The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released revised state personal income data for 2023 (release, interactive data). The federal government uses state per capita personal income to calculate each state’s federal reimbursement rate for Medicaid and other grants—the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP). The Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) uses an enhanced FMAP, which is higher than the Medicaid FMAP.
This BEA release allows calculation of final fiscal year (FY) 2026 regular FMAPs and enhanced FMAPs, which are based on per capita incomes for calendar years (CYs) 2021-2023. The personal income data reflect significant federal COVID relief in 2021, and the expiration or winding down of most federal relief programs in 2022 and 2023.
FFIS estimates that regular FMAPs will increase in 13 states and decline in 26, ranging from a +1.19 percentage-point change in Rhode Island to a -3.16 percentage-point change in Nebraska. However, the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) disaster recovery FMAP adjustment could come into play this year, which would increase Nebraska’s FMAP for certain expenditures.