FY 2026 FMAP Projections

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released preliminary state personal income data for 2023 (release, interactive data). The federal government uses state per capita personal income to calculate each state’s federal reimbursement rate for Medicaid and other grants—the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP). The Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) uses an enhanced FMAP, which is higher than the Medicaid FMAP.

This BEA release allows projections of fiscal year (FY) 2026 FMAPs and enhanced FMAPs, which are based on per capita incomes for calendar years (CYs) 2021-2023. The personal income data reflect significant federal COVID relief in 2021, and the expiration or winding down of most federal relief programs in 2022 and 2023.

FFIS’s projections show that FMAPs will increase in 17 states and decline in 22, ranging from a +0.84 percentage-point change in Pennsylvania to a -1.13 percentage-point change in Florida. However, these projections are based on preliminary data; subsequent adjustments can result in substantial differences between projected and final FMAPs for some states.