FY 2018 FMAP Projections
On March 24, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released preliminary state personal income and per capita personal income data for 2015. The federal government uses state per capita personal income to calculate each state’s reimbursement rate for Medicaid and other grant programs such as Title IV-E adoption assistance and foster care. This matching rate, calculated annually, is known as the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP). The Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) uses an enhanced FMAP, which is higher than the Medicaid matching rate.
The BEA release of 2015 preliminary data facilitates projections of fiscal year (FY) 2018 FMAPs and enhanced FMAPs, which are based on per capita personal incomes for calendar years 2013-2015.
This Issue Brief summarizes the BEA data and provides FFIS’s estimates of the preliminary FY 2018 FMAPs and enhanced FMAPs. FFIS projects that FMAPs will increase in 24 states and decline in 13 states. However, these projections are based on preliminary data, and adjustments in the final estimates can have a large impact on final FMAPs.