FY 2016 FMAP Projections
On March 25, 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released preliminary state personal income and per capita personal income data for 2013. The federal government uses state per capita personal income to calculate each state’s reimbursement rate for Medicaid and other grant programs such as Title IV-E adoption assistance and foster care. This matching rate, calculated annually, is known as the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP). The BEA release of the 2013 preliminary data permits projection of fiscal year (FY) 2016 FMAPs, which are based on per capita personal incomes for calendar years 2011-2013.
This Issue Brief summarizes the BEA data and provides FFIS’s estimates of the preliminary FY 2016 FMAPs. FFIS projects that FMAPs will increase in 17 states and decline in 21 states. Some states could see substantial changes in their FMAPs compared to FY 2015. These projections are based on preliminary data, and states have found that adjustments in the final estimates can have a large impact on their FMAP.